Key Facts
• June 7 week: U.S. jobless claims reached 248,000, seasonally adjusted.
• Claims remained steady compared to the previous week, marking an 8-month high.
• Economist forecast: 240,000 claims, slightly below actual figures.
• School year-end and summer benefits for non-teaching staff may sustain high claims.
• Labor market shows signs of losing momentum despite no widespread layoffs.
• Stricter immigration policies under U.S. administration hinder employment growth.
• QCEW data: April–December 2024 employment growth slower than monthly statistics.
• Refugee application restrictions in mid-2024 reduced labor supply.
• Barclays economist predicts 2024–2025 job growth may be revised down by 800,000–1.125 million.
• May 31 week: Continued claims rose by 54,000 to 1.956 million, highest since November 2021.
• Median unemployment duration fell to 9.5 weeks in May from 10.4 weeks in April.
Summary
The U.S. labor market continues to show signs of deceleration, with jobless claims for the week ending June 7 holding steady at 248,000, an 8-month high. Economists had forecasted 240,000 claims, but factors such as the school year-end and summer benefits for non-teaching staff are likely contributing to sustained high levels. While no widespread layoffs have been observed, stricter immigration policies and reduced labor supply from refugee application restrictions in 2024 have impacted employment growth. Data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) indicates slower employment growth compared to monthly statistics. Barclays economists project a downward revision of 2024–2025 job growth by up to 1.125 million. Continued claims for the week ending May 31 rose to 1.956 million, the highest since November 2021, while the median unemployment duration decreased to 9.5 weeks in May.
