Key Facts
• June 16, OPEC released its monthly report in London.
• 2026 oil supply from non-OPEC+ producers forecasted to increase by 730,000 barrels/day.
• Forecast reduced by 70,000 barrels/day compared to May’s projection.
• Global oil demand for 2025 and 2026 remains unchanged from previous estimates.
• No mention of the impact of Israel-Iran tensions on oil markets.
• U.S. shale production in 2026 expected to remain flat at 9.05 million barrels/day.
• OPEC+ May production increased by 180,000 barrels/day to 41.23 million barrels/day.
• Kazakhstan’s May production exceeded its quota despite a 21,000 barrels/day decrease.
Summary
OPEC’s June 16 report revised its 2026 oil supply forecast for non-OPEC+ producers, reducing the expected increase by 70,000 barrels/day to 730,000 barrels/day. This adjustment reflects slower growth in U.S. shale and other producers, potentially aiding OPEC+ in balancing supply and demand. Global oil demand projections for 2025 and 2026 remain steady. The report did not address the potential market impact of escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. U.S. shale production is expected to plateau at 9.05 million barrels/day in 2026. OPEC+ production in May rose by 180,000 barrels/day but fell short of the 411,000 barrels/day target. Kazakhstan’s output exceeded its quota despite a slight decline. These developments highlight ongoing challenges in global oil market dynamics.
