Key Facts
• Citi predicts a 20% drop in gold prices, urging caution for investors.
• Gold prices rose 108% since late 2022 and 45% in the past 12 months.
• Current gold price: $3,394 per ounce (~¥492,000), with a peak of $3,433 in April 2025.
• UBS downgraded Evolution Mining to ‘sell’ after an 81% stock price rise in 2025.
• Evolution Mining’s target price: AU$6.70, 21.7% lower than current levels.
• Northern Star Resources downgraded to ‘neutral,’ with a target price 9% higher at AU$23.
• Newmont remains the only ‘buy’ among major miners, with a target price of AU$105.
• Citi forecasts gold prices to stabilize at $3,100–$3,500 per ounce over the next 3 months.
• Long-term prediction: Gold prices may fall to $2,500–$2,700 per ounce by late 2026.
• Factors influencing decline: improved economic growth, rate cuts, and reduced investment demand.
Summary
Citi warns of a potential 20% drop in gold prices, signaling the end of a bullish phase. Gold, which saw significant gains over the past three years, faces challenges from improving economic conditions and anticipated rate cuts. UBS has downgraded Evolution Mining and Northern Star Resources, while Newmont remains a strong buy due to its competitive free cash flow. Gold prices are expected to stabilize in the short term but may decline to $2,500–$2,700 per ounce by 2026 as investment demand wanes. Investors are advised to prepare for potential market shifts.
