Key Facts
• June 20, Waseda University hosted a seminar on Lai Ching-te’s first year in office.
• Speaker: Tadahiro Ishihara, Associate Professor at National Chengchi University, Taiwan.
• Topics: Military pressure from China, legislative gridlock due to opposition majority.
• Event co-hosted by Waseda Taiwan Research Institute and Japan-Taiwan Academic Association.
• Ishihara warned recall movements could deepen political divisions.
• Example: Opposition parties rejected security briefings proposed by the ruling party.
• Lai’s use of “Republic of China” increased post-2024 elections but softened by May 2025.
• Factors: U.S. influence and declining approval after “Lai Ching-te’s 17 Articles.”
• Taiwan’s public perceives low war risk, but officials emphasize defense cooperation with U.S. and Japan.
• Military service reforms continue under Lai, maintaining policies from Tsai Ing-wen’s administration.
• Domestic outlook: Political stalemate likely until 2026 local elections.
• Diplomatic challenges: Declining allies and U.S.-China relations impacting Taiwan.
• Ishihara highlighted Japan-Taiwan relations require addressing “Taiwan contingency” awareness gap.
Summary
A seminar at Waseda University on June 20 reviewed the first year of Lai Ching-te’s administration, focusing on Taiwan’s political and diplomatic challenges. Tadahiro Ishihara, an expert on Taiwan politics, analyzed issues such as China’s military pressure, legislative gridlock, and the potential risks of recall movements exacerbating political divisions. He noted Lai’s increased use of “Republic of China” in speeches, influenced by U.S. pressure and declining approval ratings. Taiwan’s public remains calm about war risks, but officials prioritize defense cooperation with the U.S. and Japan. Domestically, political stalemates are expected to persist until 2026, while diplomatically, Taiwan faces challenges from reduced allies and shifting U.S.-China dynamics. Ishihara emphasized the need for Japan and Taiwan to bridge gaps in understanding “Taiwan contingency” scenarios for stronger bilateral relations.
