Key Facts
• On June 22, 2025, Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election results were declared at 8 PM.
• Social media posts claimed early results indicated fraud or pre-determined outcomes.
• Media outlets rely on exit polls and pre-election surveys for predictions.
• Exit polls involve asking voters about their choices immediately after voting.
• Surveys are compared to soup tasting: small samples can represent the whole.
• Gender and age distributions in surveys are matched to actual voter demographics.
• Experts state 30 years of research has refined election prediction methods.
• Declaring a candidate’s victory before counting is based on significant lead analysis.
• Four media organizations, including Nippon TV, conducted joint verification of methods.
• Experts confirm no evidence of fraud in the election reporting process.
Summary
Social media claims of fraud in the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election results, declared at 8 PM on June 22, 2025, have been debunked. Media outlets rely on exit polls and pre-election surveys, which are likened to soup tasting, to predict outcomes. These methods, refined over 30 years, ensure accuracy by matching survey demographics to actual voters. Experts and media organizations, including Nippon TV, confirmed no evidence of fraud, emphasizing the reliability of their analysis. The process involves identifying significant leads to declare results before vote counting begins.
