Key Facts
• On July 1, 2025, Japan’s Central Disaster Management Council revised disaster policies.
• Target: Reduce Nankai Trough earthquake deaths by 80% (from 298,000) in 10 years.
• Building destruction goal: Decrease total collapses from 2.35 million by 50%.
• March 2025: Experts updated damage estimates for the first time in 10 years.
• 16 municipalities added to “Nankai Trough Earthquake Disaster Prevention Promotion Areas.”
• Newly added areas include cities in Kanagawa, Nagano, Nagasaki, Kumamoto, Oita, and Okinawa.
• Designated areas must create disaster prevention plans for public facilities.
• Facility managers must draft specific earthquake response strategies.
Summary
Japan’s Central Disaster Management Council has set ambitious goals to mitigate the impact of the anticipated Nankai Trough earthquake. By 2035, the government aims to reduce the projected death toll by 80% from 298,000 and halve the number of completely destroyed buildings, currently estimated at 2.35 million. This follows a March 2025 update to damage projections, the first in a decade. Additionally, 16 municipalities, including areas in Kanagawa, Nagano, Nagasaki, Kumamoto, Oita, and Okinawa, have been added to the “Nankai Trough Earthquake Disaster Prevention Promotion Areas.” These regions are now required to develop comprehensive disaster prevention plans, with public facility managers mandated to create specific response strategies. The government is committed to swiftly designating these areas to enhance preparedness and reduce potential losses.
