Key Facts
• June 13, 2025: Israel bombed Iran’s nuclear facilities, killing military officials and scientists.
• Gulf states initially celebrated, seeing it as a reduction in Iran’s threat.
• U.S. and Israel’s intent to change Iran’s regime caused Gulf states to grow uneasy.
• Since 1979, Iran’s “exporting revolution” policy has strained relations with Gulf nations.
• 2023: Saudi Arabia and Iran restored diplomatic ties to avoid chaotic regime changes.
• Gulf states view Iran as a historical part of the Middle East, unlike Israel.
• Israel’s reliance on military power contrasts with Gulf nations’ economic aspirations.
• Prolonged conflict could pressure Israel to alter its hardline policies on Palestine.
• A Western-aligned nationalist regime in Iran could destabilize the region further.
• Gulf states aim to avoid refugee crises and economic fallout from regional instability.
Summary
Gulf states are wary of a clear winner in the Israel-Iran conflict, fearing regional instability. While they initially welcomed Israel’s strikes on Iran, concerns grew over potential regime changes in Tehran. Gulf nations, including Saudi Arabia, prefer a stable Iran without chaotic transitions, as instability could lead to economic and humanitarian crises. They also view Israel’s militaristic approach as incompatible with their vision of an economically integrated Middle East. A prolonged conflict could pressure Israel to soften its stance on Palestine, potentially easing normalization efforts. However, a Western-aligned Iran could reignite territorial disputes and disrupt Gulf states’ strategic balance.
