Key Facts
• July 3-4: Survey conducted via phone and internet with 145,037 responses.
• 125 seats contested: 75 in electoral districts, 50 through proportional representation.
• Ruling coalition (Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito) may struggle to secure 50 seats.
• Liberal Democratic Party faces challenges in Tohoku, Shikoku, and Kyushu regions.
• Komeito’s candidates face tight races in Saitama, Kanagawa, Osaka, and Hyogo.
• Constitutional Democratic Party leads in Nagano, Mie, and Oita single-member districts.
• Democratic Party for the People shows strength in Kagawa, Shizuoka, and Aichi.
• Sanseito expected to gain seats in Tokyo and proportional representation.
• Japan Innovation Party, Communist Party, and Reiwa Shinsengumi compete in multi-member districts.
• Japan Conservative Party likely to secure its first seat through proportional representation.
• 522 candidates are running: 350 in electoral districts, 172 in proportional representation.
Summary
The upcoming Japanese Upper House election, set for July 20, sees the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito facing a potential loss of their majority. A survey conducted on July 3-4 with over 145,000 responses highlights challenges for the LDP in key regions like Tohoku, Shikoku, and Kyushu, while Komeito struggles in major urban areas. Opposition parties, including the Constitutional Democratic Party and Democratic Party for the People, show strong performances in both single-member and multi-member districts. Emerging parties like Sanseito and the Japan Conservative Party are poised to gain ground, with the former expected to secure seats in Tokyo and proportional representation. A total of 522 candidates are vying for 125 seats, with the election outcome remaining fluid due to undecided voters.
