Key Facts
• NNN and Yomiuri conducted a survey on July 3-4, 2025.
• 140,537 respondents participated: 52,856 via phone, 87,681 online.
• Ruling coalition (Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito) struggles to secure a majority.
• Liberal Democratic Party projected to win early 40s seats, below the 52-seat target.
• Komeito may fall short of its 14-seat target, fighting for 10 seats.
• 50 seats are needed for the coalition to maintain a majority.
• Constitutional Democratic Party expected to exceed its 22-seat target, aiming for high 20s.
• Democratic Party for the People likely to secure mid-10s seats, showing significant growth.
• Japan Innovation Party strong in Osaka but weaker in proportional representation.
• Communist Party may fall below its 7-seat target.
• Reiwa Shinsengumi could increase its 2 seats.
• Sanseito, boosted by Tokyo elections, may achieve double-digit seats.
• Minor parties like the Conservative Party and Social Democratic Party may win proportional seats.
• “Path of Renewal” party has a slim chance of securing 1 proportional seat.
• Undecided voters could shift the outcome in the final stages.
Summary
A recent NNN-Yomiuri survey reveals uncertainty for Japan’s ruling coalition in maintaining a majority in the House of Councillors. The Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito face challenges, with projections falling short of their targets. Meanwhile, opposition parties like the Democratic Party for the People and Sanseito show significant momentum, potentially reshaping the political landscape. The survey, conducted with over 140,000 respondents, highlights the critical role of undecided voters in the election’s final stages.
