Key Facts
• Lithium prices for EV batteries dropped 37.6% year-on-year as of June 18, 2025.
• Current price: ¥60,500/ton (~$122,000), below the ¥60,000 (~$121,000) threshold.
• Prices peaked at ¥600,000/ton (~$1.21M) in November 2022, now down 90%.
• Supply glut expected to persist until 2030 due to overproduction.
• Refining costs: Salt lake brine (~¥50,000/ton, ~$101,000) vs. spodumene (~¥80,000/ton, ~$161,000).
• EV demand slowed globally in 2024, exacerbating oversupply.
• Speculative investments in 2021-2022 led to overexpansion of lithium projects.
• Only high-lithium-content salt lake projects remain profitable at current prices.
Summary
Lithium prices, critical for EV battery production, have plummeted to one-tenth of their November 2022 peak due to a global supply glut and slowing demand. As of June 18, 2025, prices stand at ¥60,500/ton (~$122,000), a 37.6% year-on-year drop. Overproduction, driven by speculative investments during the 2021-2022 EV boom, has led to a market imbalance expected to last until 2030. Refining costs vary significantly, with salt lake brine being the most economical (~¥50,000/ton, ~$101,000), while spodumene and lepidolite are far costlier. Current prices render most production methods unprofitable, except for select high-lithium-content salt lake projects. The EV market slowdown in 2024, particularly outside China, has further pressured prices, leaving many producers in financial distress.
