Key Facts
• July 10, OPEC released the 2025 World Oil Outlook (WOO).
• Global oil demand forecast for 2026 reduced to 106.3 million barrels/day (previously 108 million).
• 2029 demand forecast lowered by 700,000 barrels/day to 111.6 million barrels/day.
• 2030 demand projection remains unchanged at 113.3 million barrels/day.
• Long-term demand forecast raised to 122.9 million barrels/day by 2050 (previously 120.1 million).
• OPEC sees no evidence of peak oil demand in the near term.
• China’s demand slows due to economic deceleration, EV adoption, and infrastructure development.
• India, the Middle East, and Africa expected to drive long-term growth.
• Oil industry investment needs by 2050 increased to $18.2 trillion (previously $17.4 trillion).
• BP and IEA predict oil demand to peak in the 2020s, but OPEC disagrees.
Summary
OPEC’s 2025 World Oil Outlook highlights a downward revision in global oil demand forecasts for 2026–2029, citing China’s slowing economic growth and increased EV adoption. Despite this, OPEC raised its long-term demand projection to 122.9 million barrels/day by 2050, driven by growth in India, the Middle East, and Africa. The organization emphasized that oil remains central to the global economy and sees no imminent peak in demand. Investment needs for the oil industry by 2050 have also been increased to $18.2 trillion. While BP and the IEA anticipate a demand peak in the 2020s, OPEC maintains a more optimistic outlook for sustained growth.
