Key Facts
• US inflation had stabilized for months but shows signs of reacceleration.
• June Consumer Price Index (CPI) data to be released on July 15.
• Core CPI expected to rise 0.3% month-over-month, highest in five months.
• Year-over-year core CPI forecasted to accelerate to 2.9%, first since January.
• Economists predict gradual inflation increase through 2025 due to tariffs.
• Retail sales for June, set for July 17, may show slight growth after two declines.
• Federal Reserve (FOMC) maintains interest rates amid inflation concerns.
• Tariff pass-through impacts goods like appliances and furniture, while airfare and used car prices drop.
• Federal Reserve’s Beige Book to be released on July 16.
• G20 finance ministers and central bank governors to meet in South Africa.
• China’s Q2 GDP and industrial production data to be released on July 15.
• Japan’s May machinery orders and June CPI data indicate economic slowdown.
Summary
US inflation, which had stabilized in recent months, is showing signs of reacceleration as companies pass on higher import tariffs to consumers. June’s core CPI is expected to rise 0.3% month-over-month and 2.9% year-over-year, marking the fastest pace since January. Economists predict inflation will gradually increase throughout 2025. Retail sales data for June, due July 17, may show slight growth after two months of decline, reflecting cautious consumer spending amid a cooling labor market. The Federal Reserve has opted to maintain interest rates, citing concerns over inflationary pressures from tariffs. Meanwhile, global economic data, including China’s Q2 GDP and Japan’s June CPI, highlight regional slowdowns. The G20 meeting in South Africa will address global economic challenges, with US tariff policies under scrutiny.
