Key Facts
• July 12-13: Special survey conducted for the 27th Upper House election.
• 125 seats needed for a majority; ruling coalition struggles to secure 50 seats.
• Single-member districts: Competitive races increased from 7-8; opposition leads in 18 districts.
• Ruling coalition’s estimated seats: 31-55; Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) reduced to 27-43.
• LDP leads in 6 single-member districts; previously strongholds like Gunma now competitive.
• Komeito’s estimated seats: 4-12; only Tokyo shows clear prospects.
• Opposition leads in 16 single-member districts; gains in Toyama and Yamanashi.
• Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) estimated seats: 23-32, surpassing its 22-seat renewal.
• Japan Innovation Party (JIP) struggles, estimated seats: 5-7; strong in Kyoto and Osaka.
• Other parties: Communist Party (3-5 seats), Democratic Party for the People (11-19 seats).
• Reiwa Shinsengumi (3-4 seats), Sanseito (8-17 seats), Japan Conservative Party (2-3 seats).
• 40% undecided in districts, 30% undecided in proportional representation.
• Survey conducted via internet with 80,980 valid responses from 74 million eligible voters.
Summary
A midterm survey for Japan’s 27th Upper House election reveals significant challenges for the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito in maintaining their majority. The coalition struggles to secure the 50 seats required, with their estimated total ranging from 31 to 55. Single-member districts have become more competitive, with opposition parties leading in 18 of 32 districts. The LDP’s estimated seats have dropped to 27-43, with previously strong regions like Gunma now facing tight races. Komeito shows clear prospects only in Tokyo, with an estimated 4-12 seats overall. Opposition parties, including the Constitutional Democratic Party (23-32 seats), show gains, while smaller parties like the Japan Innovation Party and Reiwa Shinsengumi also compete strongly. Notably, 40% of voters in districts and 30% in proportional representation remain undecided, leaving room for shifts before the July 20 election. The survey, conducted via internet, gathered 80,980 valid responses from a pool of 74 million eligible voters.
