Key Facts
• July 14, 2025: San Francisco Fed released a report on US tariff impacts.
• Manufacturing jobs may increase, but overall US employment could drop by 0.2% in 4 years.
• Real income may rise in 31 states but decline in large states like California and Texas.
• Nationwide, inflation-adjusted income is projected to decrease by 0.4%.
• Tariffs: 25% on Canada/Mexico, 30% on China, 10% on other trade partners.
• States with close trade ties to affected countries may see over 2% income loss.
• Some states could experience up to a 1.7% income increase.
• Report part of Federal Reserve’s effort to assess tariff impacts on prices and labor.
• Findings are not intended as precise forecasts.
Summary
The San Francisco Federal Reserve’s report highlights the mixed effects of the Trump administration’s tariff measures. While manufacturing jobs may rise, overall US employment is expected to decline by 0.2% over four years due to job losses in services and agriculture. Real income could increase in 31 states but decrease in larger states like California and Texas, leading to a nationwide drop of 0.4%. Tariffs include 25% on Canada and Mexico, 30% on China, and 10% on other trade partners. States with strong trade ties to affected countries may face significant income losses, while others could see modest gains. The report, part of the Federal Reserve’s analysis of tariff impacts, emphasizes that these findings are not precise predictions.
