Key Facts
• July 20, 2025: Upper House election voting day.
• LDP and Komeito projected to secure only 40 seats, losing proportional representation seats.
• Combined with non-contested seats, ruling coalition likely to fall below majority.
• July 17, 2025: FNN conducted phone surveys in competitive districts.
• Opposition candidates, including those from the Sanseito, gaining momentum in key districts.
• LDP expected to win only 30 seats, with tight races in urban and rural districts.
• Komeito faces challenges in proportional representation and competitive districts.
• Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) aims for 30 seats but faces vote splitting among opposition.
• Japan Innovation Party may increase seats depending on results in Kansai region.
• Democratic Party for the People (DPP) likely to double proportional seats, targeting 16 seats.
• Sanseito poised to secure double-digit seats, potentially reaching 20.
• Smaller parties like the Social Democratic Party and Japan Conservative Party struggle to secure proportional seats.
• Final results depend on voter turnout and last-minute campaigning.
Summary
The 2025 Upper House election, set for July 20, is expected to see significant shifts in Japan’s political landscape. The ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito is projected to lose its majority, securing only 40 seats combined. Tight races in urban and rural districts, along with reduced proportional representation seats, contribute to this decline. Opposition parties, including the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) and Sanseito, are gaining ground, with the latter potentially securing up to 20 seats. Meanwhile, the Democratic Party for the People (DPP) is poised for significant gains, targeting 16 seats. Smaller parties like the Social Democratic Party and Japan Conservative Party face challenges in securing proportional seats. The final outcome hinges on voter turnout and last-minute campaigning efforts.
