Key Facts
• July 23: Media reports emerge on PM Ishiba’s potential resignation, which he denies.
• To hold a party meeting, 1/3 of members must request it; over 50% must approve early elections.
• Approximately 150 out of 300 Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) members’ support is needed for leadership change.
• Key candidates for post-Ishiba leadership include Sanae Takahashi (64) and Shinjiro Koizumi (44).
• A no-confidence motion requires 50 parliamentary signatures; only the Constitutional Democratic Party meets this threshold.
• If passed, PM Ishiba could dissolve parliament, leading to political instability.
• Fall 2025: Speculation that Ishiba may resign if budget approval fails in the extraordinary Diet session.
Summary
Prime Minister Ishiba faces mounting pressure to resign following election losses, though he denies stepping down. Removing him as LDP leader requires significant internal support, which remains unlikely due to procedural hurdles. A no-confidence motion, while possible, risks parliamentary dissolution and political chaos. Key candidates for succession face challenges in forming coalitions with opposition parties. Analysts predict Ishiba may resign by fall 2025 if his administration fails to pass critical budget measures, signaling potential leadership changes within the LDP.
