Key Facts
• July 23, 2025: Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba met with three former PMs for 80 minutes.
• Aso Taro criticized Ishiba, suggesting he step down due to election losses.
• Aso and Ishiba have a history of conflict dating back to the 2009 general election.
• Sanae Takaichi lost the 2024 LDP leadership runoff to Ishiba.
• Aso has since built a close relationship with Takaichi, raising concerns within the LDP.
• Political analyst Atsuo Ito highlights two challenges for Takaichi’s leadership bid:
1. Aso’s “kingmaker” image may provoke backlash within the party.
2. Takaichi’s support base has weakened after the 2025 upper house election.
• Conservative groups like Nippon Kaigi have shifted support to other parties.
• Some LDP members propose Shinjiro Koizumi as an alternative leader.
• Analysts argue Koizumi’s popularity among media does not guarantee voter support.
Summary
Sanae Takaichi’s potential bid for Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leadership faces significant hurdles. Aso Taro’s close association with Takaichi has sparked concerns about his “kingmaker” role, which could alienate party members and voters. Additionally, Takaichi’s support base has eroded following the LDP’s historic defeat in the 2025 upper house election, with conservative groups shifting allegiance to other parties. Political analyst Atsuo Ito warns that these factors make Takaichi’s path to leadership challenging. Meanwhile, some LDP members suggest Shinjiro Koizumi as a viable alternative, though analysts caution that media-driven popularity may not translate into electoral success. The LDP’s internal divisions and declining voter support underscore the party’s ongoing crisis.
