Key Facts
• July 30, 2025: US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released Q2 GDP data.
• Real GDP growth rate: +3.0% annualized (previous quarter: -0.5%).
• Market forecast exceeded: Bloomberg median estimate was +2.6%.
• External demand contributed +4.99 percentage points (previous quarter: -4.61 points).
• Equipment investment slowed to +1.9% (previous quarter: +10.3%).
• Residential investment declined for the second consecutive quarter: -4.6% (previous quarter: -1.3%).
• Government spending turned positive: +0.4% (previous quarter: -0.6%).
• Personal consumption accelerated: +1.4% (previous quarter: +0.5%).
• Durable goods consumption rebounded: +3.7% (previous quarter: -3.7%).
• Imports dropped sharply: -30.3% (previous quarter: +37.9%).
• Exports slightly declined: -1.8% (previous quarter: +0.4%).
• Core PCE price index fell: +2.6% annualized (previous quarter: +3.5%).
Summary
The US economy rebounded in Q2 2025, with real GDP growing at an annualized rate of +3.0%, surpassing the market forecast of +2.6%. This growth was primarily driven by a significant contribution from external demand (+4.99 percentage points), as imports sharply declined (-30.3%) following a surge in the previous quarter due to pre-tariff stockpiling. Personal consumption also accelerated, supported by a rebound in durable goods consumption (+3.7%). However, private domestic final demand growth slowed to +1.2%, reflecting weaker domestic demand. Government spending turned positive (+0.4%), while residential investment continued to decline (-4.6%). The GDP price index and core PCE price index both showed deceleration, indicating easing inflationary pressures. Despite the strong headline growth, underlying domestic demand remained subdued.
