Key Facts
• August 1: Indonesia’s statistics bureau released June trade data.
• June exports rose 11.29% year-on-year to $23.44 billion, surpassing forecasts of 10.41% growth.
• May exports had increased by 9.68% year-on-year.
• U.S.-bound exports (excluding oil and gas) surged 33.5% due to tariff deadline.
• Palm oil exports grew 15.1%, while jewelry exports more than doubled year-on-year.
• Imports increased 4.28% to $19.33 billion, below the forecasted 6.5% growth.
• Trade surplus reached $4.11 billion, slightly down from May’s $4.3 billion but above the $3.45 billion forecast.
• July Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.37% year-on-year, exceeding the 2.25% forecast.
• Core inflation (excluding regulated items and food) was 2.32%, below the 2.37% forecast.
• Both CPI and core inflation remained within the central bank’s 1.5–3.5% target range.
• Analysts predict manageable current account deficits and a potential 0.5% interest rate cut by Indonesia’s central bank this year.
Summary
Indonesia’s June exports grew 11.29% year-on-year to $23.44 billion, driven by a surge in U.S.-bound shipments ahead of tariff deadlines. Key export items like palm oil and jewelry saw significant increases. Imports rose 4.28% to $19.33 billion, resulting in a $4.11 billion trade surplus, exceeding forecasts. July’s CPI accelerated to 2.37%, surpassing analyst expectations, with food, utilities, and education costs contributing to the rise. Core inflation remained within the central bank’s target range. Analysts expect Indonesia’s current account deficit to remain manageable and anticipate a potential 0.5% interest rate cut by year-end.
