Key Facts
• A private study group led by Justice Minister Keishu Suzuki projects foreign residents will make up 10% of Japan’s population by 2040, up from the current 2.7%.
• The projection is based on current trends of population decline and foreign resident growth.
• Previous estimates by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research predicted this milestone by 2070, 30 years later than the new projection.
• Japan’s annual births dropped to 680,000 in 2022, a figure previously expected by 2039.
• Foreign residents in Japan have increased by over 300,000 annually in the past three years, surpassing earlier estimates of tens of thousands per year.
• European countries with over 10% foreign populations face challenges like social division and political instability.
• Suzuki emphasized the need for public understanding and support to ensure safety, fairness, and social integration.
• As of January 2024, 14 municipalities in Japan have foreign resident populations exceeding 10%, with some areas experiencing social friction.
• A midterm report on foreign resident policies is expected soon from Suzuki’s study group.
Summary
A private study group led by Japan’s Justice Minister Keishu Suzuki has projected that foreign residents could account for 10% of the country’s population by 2040, a significant increase from the current 2.7%. This projection, based on trends of declining births and rising foreign resident numbers, is 30 years ahead of previous estimates. Japan’s annual births have already dropped to levels expected by 2039, while foreign resident growth has exceeded 300,000 annually in recent years. Suzuki highlighted the importance of creating a fair and safe environment for both citizens and foreign residents to ensure social harmony. He also noted that many European countries with high foreign populations face challenges like social division and political instability. The study group is preparing a midterm report on policies for foreign resident integration, addressing issues such as concentrated foreign communities and potential social friction.
