Key Facts
• August 8, 2025: German Federal Statistical Office reports trade data for H1 2025.
• China nears parity with the U.S. as Germany’s largest trade partner.
• Germany’s H1 2025 trade with the U.S.: €125 billion; with China: €122.8 billion.
• U.S. overtook China as Germany’s top trade partner in 2024 after eight years.
• H1 2025 German exports to the U.S. fell 3.9% YoY to €77.6 billion.
• Commerzbank predicts U.S. tariffs may cut German exports by 20–25% in two years.
• Imports from China rose 10.7% YoY to €81.4 billion in H1 2025.
• German exports to China dropped 14.2% YoY to €41.4 billion.
• Germany’s trade deficit with China reached €40 billion, second-highest on record.
• Experts cite undervalued yuan and rising competition from Chinese manufacturers.
Summary
China is poised to reclaim its position as Germany’s largest trade partner, driven by a decline in German exports to the U.S. and a surge in imports from China. In the first half of 2025, Germany’s trade with the U.S. totaled €125 billion, narrowly surpassing €122.8 billion with China. U.S. tariffs have significantly impacted German exports, which fell 3.9% year-on-year, with further declines expected. Meanwhile, imports from China rose 10.7%, fueled by competitive pricing and an undervalued yuan. Germany’s trade deficit with China reached €40 billion, exacerbating economic challenges. Experts warn that these trends could deepen Germany’s industrial crisis.
