Key Facts
• August 8: Over 250 Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) members attended a key meeting.
• Decision made to consider early LDP leadership election based on party rules.
• Ishiba Cabinet approval rating rose 4.0 points to 36.8% in the latest JNN poll.
• LDP support dropped to 20.4%, the lowest since 2012.
• 47% of respondents believe Ishiba should not resign, while 43% think he should.
• 65% of LDP supporters and 63% of Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) supporters oppose Ishiba’s resignation.
• “Next Prime Minister” poll: Ishiba ranked 3rd with 11.1%, behind Koizumi (20.4%) and Takaichi (16.7%).
• Main reasons for LDP’s election loss: 46% cited lack of expectations for the party.
• August’s final week will see a report on the Upper House election defeat.
• Key LDP figures, including Secretary-General Moriyama, may resign soon.
• Early leadership election could lead to Ishiba’s resignation if he lacks support.
Summary
The Ishiba Cabinet faces mounting challenges following the LDP’s defeat in the Upper House election. Despite a 4.0-point rise in approval ratings to 36.8%, the LDP’s support has plummeted to 20.4%, its lowest since 2012. Public opinion remains divided, with 47% opposing Ishiba’s resignation and 43% supporting it. Ishiba’s continuation is bolstered by internal party dynamics, the absence of strong factions, and limited opposition momentum. However, the upcoming report on the election defeat and potential resignations of key LDP figures, including Secretary-General Moriyama, could destabilize the Cabinet. An early leadership election looms as a critical turning point, with Ishiba’s future hinging on his ability to secure sufficient support. The situation underscores the LDP’s internal struggles and the broader political landscape’s volatility.
