Key Facts
• On August 12, the Japan Meteorological Agency released an El Niño monitoring report.
• Neither El Niño nor La Niña phenomena are currently occurring, indicating normal conditions.
• In July, sea surface temperature deviation in the El Niño monitoring region was -0.1°C.
• The 5-month moving average for May was +0.1°C, close to the baseline value.
• Pacific equatorial sea surface temperatures were higher in the west, lower in the center, and near normal in the east.
• Trade winds were stronger than average in the central Pacific but normal in the east.
• Atmospheric and oceanic conditions suggest a 60% chance of normal conditions persisting through winter.
• Coupled atmosphere-ocean models predict trade winds will remain strong into fall, lowering sea surface temperatures.
• However, weak atmosphere-ocean coupling suggests these conditions will not last long.
• Sea surface temperatures are expected to rise and return to baseline levels by winter.
Summary
The Japan Meteorological Agency announced on August 12 that neither El Niño nor La Niña phenomena are currently occurring, with normal conditions prevailing. While there is a possibility of conditions resembling La Niña developing this fall, they are unlikely to persist. Key indicators, such as sea surface temperature deviations and trade wind strength, suggest a 60% likelihood of normal conditions continuing through winter. Coupled atmosphere-ocean models predict temporary cooling in the Pacific equatorial region during fall, followed by a return to baseline sea surface temperatures by winter. These findings highlight stable atmospheric and oceanic conditions, minimizing the likelihood of significant climate anomalies in the coming months.
