Key Facts
• August 31: Deputy Minister Hiroaki Saito publicly calls for early LDP leadership election.
• Yomiuri poll (August 30): Only 128 out of 342 required votes support early election.
• Breakdown: 120 LDP lawmakers support, 32 oppose, 124 undecided, 19 unresponsive.
• Prefectural branches: Only 8 support early election; 21 supported in Jiji Press survey.
• September 2: Senate election review committee to present findings, potential for upheaval.
• Hyogo and Saitama branches back early election; momentum remains limited.
• Fear of media exposure deters lawmakers from openly supporting early election.
• Leadership aims to attribute election loss to party, not Prime Minister Ishiba personally.
Summary
Efforts to oust Prime Minister Ishiba through an early Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leadership election face significant hurdles. Despite public calls from key figures like Deputy Minister Hiroaki Saito, a Yomiuri poll revealed insufficient support, with only 128 of the required 172 votes in favor. Many lawmakers remain undecided, citing fear of media scrutiny as a deterrent. Prefectural branches show limited backing, with only 8 supporting early elections in the Yomiuri poll, though a Jiji Press survey reported 21. The upcoming September 2 Senate election review committee report could shift dynamics, especially if it criticizes Ishiba directly. While Hyogo and Saitama branches have endorsed early elections, overall momentum for the “Ishiba ousting” remains stagnant.
