Key Facts
• Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture forecasts rice demand at 7.11 million tons (July 2025–June 2026).
• This marks an increase of up to 380,000 tons from the previous year’s estimate of 6.73 million tons.
• Demand calculation now includes consumption by inbound tourists.
• Estimated demand range: 6.97–7.11 million tons.
• Previous assumptions of declining per capita consumption due to population decrease and bread preference revised.
• Production for 2025 rice crop estimated at 7.28–7.45 million tons.
• Milled rice production projected at 6.45–6.68 million tons, factoring in yield rates.
• Supply shortages linked to unaccounted yield declines during heatwaves.
• Rising rice prices since last year influenced production adjustments.
Summary
Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture projects a significant increase in annual rice demand for July 2025 to June 2026, reaching up to 7.11 million tons, a 380,000-ton rise from the previous year’s estimate. This unprecedented growth reflects a revised calculation method that incorporates consumption by inbound tourists. The estimated demand range is 6.97–7.11 million tons, with production for the 2025 rice crop expected at 7.28–7.45 million tons. Milled rice output is projected at 6.45–6.68 million tons, considering yield rates for the first time. Supply shortages in recent years were attributed to unaccounted yield declines during heatwaves, alongside rising rice prices. The ministry’s proactive stance on increasing rice production aims to address these challenges.
