Key Facts
• October 24, 2025: Taiyo Life announced its 2025 H2 asset management plan.
• Focus on increasing domestic bonds, especially long-term and super-long-term government bonds.
• Foreign bonds to remain flat; domestic and foreign equities to decrease.
• Japan 10-year bond yield forecast: 1.20–2.00% (1.50% by fiscal year-end).
• U.S. 10-year bond yield forecast: 3.00–4.80% (3.80% by fiscal year-end).
• Dollar/Yen exchange rate forecast: 135–160 (140 by fiscal year-end).
• Nikkei 225 forecast: 40,000–52,000 (45,000 by fiscal year-end).
• Dow Jones forecast: 43,000–52,000 (46,000 by fiscal year-end).
• Alternatives to expand; real estate to remain flat; loans to decrease.
• Bank of Japan expected to raise rates once in 2025, with no further hikes.
• U.S. Federal Reserve projected to lower rates to 3% by mid-2026.
Summary
Taiyo Life, under T&D Holdings, plans to increase domestic bond holdings in the second half of fiscal 2025, focusing on long-term and super-long-term government bonds. Foreign bond holdings will remain flat, while domestic and foreign equities will decrease, particularly through reductions in policy-related stocks. The company forecasts Japan’s 10-year bond yield to range between 1.20% and 2.00%, with a year-end target of 1.50%. U.S. 10-year bond yields are expected to range from 3.00% to 4.80%, ending at 3.80%. The dollar/yen exchange rate is projected at 135–160, with a year-end target of 140. Taiyo Life anticipates one additional rate hike by the Bank of Japan in 2025, while the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to lower rates to 3% by mid-2026. Alternative investments will expand, while loans and equities will decrease. Real estate holdings are expected to remain stable.
