Key Facts
• On November 3, Turkey’s statistical agency reported October CPI rose 32.87% YoY.
• Month-on-month CPI increased by 2.55%, both figures below forecasts.
• Reuters survey predicted 33.24% YoY and 2.83% MoM increases.
• Food prices rose 34.9% YoY and 3.4% MoM, contributing to inflation.
• Housing prices surged over 50% YoY, while clothing prices rose over 12% MoM.
• September CPI exceeded expectations for two consecutive months.
• Central Bank cut policy rate by 100 basis points to 39.5% in October.
• Analysts speculated rate cuts might halt if October inflation exceeded forecasts.
• October producer price index (PPI) rose 1.63% MoM and 27% YoY.
• Finance Minister Simsek projected year-end inflation at 25–29%, but deemed it unlikely.
Summary
Turkey’s October consumer price index (CPI) rose 32.87% year-on-year (YoY) and 2.55% month-on-month (MoM), both below expectations of 33.24% YoY and 2.83% MoM. Food prices increased 34.9% YoY, while housing and clothing prices saw significant rises, adding inflationary pressure. The Central Bank recently reduced its policy rate to 39.5%, slowing its monetary easing cycle. Analysts suggested further rate cuts might stop if inflation exceeded forecasts, but October’s figures alleviated such concerns. Meanwhile, the producer price index (PPI) rose 27% YoY. Finance Minister Simsek expressed doubts about achieving the year-end inflation target of 25–29%, though he remained optimistic about disinflation continuing into 2026.
