Key Facts
• Research predicts Amazon forest may shrink by 40% by 2100.
• Study published on December 9 in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
• Global temperature rise of 2.3°C since pre-industrial times accelerates forest loss.
• Amazon absorbs 300 million tons of CO2 annually, equivalent to 30% of Japan’s emissions.
• Land conversion for agriculture could reduce forest area by 25%.
• Climate-induced drying may cause an additional 13% loss.
• Forest loss rate from 2050–2100 could be 16 times higher than the 1950–2100 average.
• UNEP report forecasts global temperatures may rise by up to 2.8°C by 2100.
• Researchers urge adherence to the Paris Agreement and forest conservation measures.
Summary
The Amazon rainforest, often referred to as the “lungs of the Earth,” faces a potential 40% reduction in size by 2100 if current trends in land use and climate change persist. A study by an international research team highlights that a 2.3°C rise in global temperatures since pre-industrial times could drastically accelerate forest loss, with significant impacts on global climate and local communities. The Amazon, which currently absorbs 300 million tons of CO2 annually, risks becoming a net emitter due to deforestation and drying. Simulations predict that land conversion for agriculture could account for 25% of the forest loss, while climate-induced drying may contribute an additional 13%. The study also warns that forest loss rates could surge 16-fold between 2050 and 2100 compared to the historical average. The United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) projects a potential 2.8°C temperature rise by century’s end, underscoring the urgent need for emission reductions and forest conservation aligned with the Paris Agreement.
