Key Facts
• December 25, 2025: Keidanren Chairman Yoshinobu Tsutsui and Japan Chamber of Commerce Chairman Ken Kobayashi interviewed by Mainichi Shimbun.
• 2024-2025: Large companies raised wages over 5% on average.
• October 2025: Real wages negative for 10 consecutive months.
• 2026 forecast: Moderate economic growth expected due to strong corporate profits and steady capital investment.
• Takaichi administration started October 2025, fiscal expansion raised yen depreciation concerns.
• Yen depreciation pressures household budgets via higher import costs for energy and food.
• Both leaders emphasize need to correct yen depreciation to achieve wage increases exceeding inflation.
• Bank of Japan raised policy interest rates in December 2025; supported for curbing yen depreciation despite impact on SMEs.
• SMEs face inflation challenges mainly caused by exchange rate fluctuations.
• Calls for large companies to recognize their role in supporting SMEs’ price adjustments amid rising costs.
• Consumer understanding of price increases urged alongside wage growth.
Summary
In late 2025, Keidanren Chairman Yoshinobu Tsutsui and Japan Chamber of Commerce Chairman Ken Kobayashi highlighted the ongoing challenge of real wages remaining negative despite nominal wage increases exceeding 5% in large companies during 2024 and 2025. They forecast moderate economic growth in 2026 supported by strong corporate earnings and capital investment. Both leaders stressed the importance of correcting the yen’s depreciation, which has intensified since the Takaichi administration’s fiscal expansion began in October 2025, as it raises import costs and squeezes household budgets. While the Bank of Japan’s December interest rate hike impacts small and medium enterprises, it is supported as a measure to stabilize the yen. The leaders called for large corporations to take responsibility in enabling SMEs to pass on rising costs through prices, ensuring wage increases can be sustained. They also urged consumers to accept price rises as part of a transition away from deflationary conditions, aiming for real wage growth that outpaces inflation.
