Key Facts
• October 2025: Cabinet approval rate at 75.4% after Takaichi administration launch
• December 2025: Cabinet approval rate remains high at 75.9%
• LDP support rate stagnates below 31% from September to December 2025
• Some LDP members suggest early dissolution before approval rates decline
• PM Takaichi repeatedly states no time to consider dissolution, focusing on inflation countermeasures
• Speculation on possible dissolution timing around spring 2026 budget approval
• Takaichi’s term as LDP president ends September 2028, with re-election key for long-term rule
• Younger female voters show notably low LDP support: 20s at 10.9%, 30s at 4.0%, 40s at 23.0%
• Concerns over public perception of LDP due to political funding scandals
• Komeito’s potential exit from coalition raises vote loss fears
• House of Representatives majority regained via small parties; Upper House remains minority
• Debate on election necessity given Upper House status
• Election cooperation issues between LDP and Japan Innovation Party (JIP) due to competing districts
• JIP dominates Osaka districts, threatening LDP candidate placements
• JIP demands include electoral district reduction and副首都構想 (sub-capital plan) legislation
• JIP Secretary-General stresses dissolution requires addressing coalition agreement items
• Complex factors: approval ratings, 2028 LDP leadership election, coalition dynamics
• PM Takaichi’s decision on early dissolution in 2026 closely watched
Summary
The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) faces internal debate over an early House of Representatives dissolution amid Prime Minister Takaichi’s cabinet maintaining approval ratings above 75%, while the party’s own support lingers below 31%. Despite high cabinet popularity, many LDP members worry the party’s low support and political scandals could undermine election prospects. PM Takaichi has publicly dismissed dissolution plans, focusing on inflation and policy implementation, yet speculation grows about a possible election after the 2026 spring budget approval. The LDP’s coalition with Komeito is uncertain, raising concerns about vote losses. Additionally, election cooperation with the Japan Innovation Party (JIP) remains unresolved, especially in Osaka where JIP outperforms LDP, complicating candidate placements. JIP insists on fulfilling coalition agreement demands, including electoral district cuts and legislation on the sub-capital plan, before any dissolution. With Takaichi’s LDP presidency term ending in 2028, timing the dissolution to secure re-election is critical. These intertwined factors make the prime minister’s decision on an early election in 2026 a focal point for Japan’s political future.
