Key Facts
• October 2025: Prime Minister Takaichi held consecutive summit meetings with U.S. President Trump, Chinese President Xi Jinping, and South Korean President Lee Jae-myung.
• Takaichi’s remarks on a Taiwan contingency caused a sharp decline in Japan-China relations.
• 2026 marks the 10th anniversary of former Prime Minister Abe’s “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” (FOIP) strategy.
• April 2026: Scheduled U.S.-China summit between Trump and Xi, influencing Japan-China dynamics.
• June 2026: G7 Summit in Évian, France, with possible Chinese invitation raising concerns.
• November 2026: APEC Summit in Shenzhen, China, where Japan-China bilateral talks are likely.
• Japan maintains a calm stance amid China’s strong reactions, emphasizing clear communication of its position.
• Takaichi plans to strengthen FOIP through strategic investments, including ODA and OSA.
• Japan aims to highlight the high quality of the Japan-U.S. alliance ahead of the U.S.-China summit.
• Government officials expect Japan-China relations to take time to improve, with no quick resolution anticipated.
Summary
Prime Minister Takaichi’s diplomatic debut in late 2025 was marked by rapid summit meetings with key leaders, earning praise as a “rocket start.” However, his comments on a Taiwan contingency triggered a significant cooling of Japan-China relations. In 2026, Japan faces critical diplomatic challenges, including the April U.S.-China summit, the June G7 meeting in France where China’s participation is uncertain, and the November APEC summit in China, which may offer a rare opportunity for bilateral talks. Japan’s government adopts a measured approach, rejecting China’s demands for retractions while emphasizing factual communication. The year also marks the 10th anniversary of the “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” strategy, with Takaichi expected to continue Abe’s legacy by reinforcing regional partnerships through strategic investments. The quality of the Japan-U.S. alliance will be a key diplomatic asset as Japan navigates complex trilateral relations. Overall, 2026 will test Takaichi’s ability to shape Japan’s foreign policy amid strained Japan-China ties and evolving global dynamics.
