Key Facts
• Late December 2025: Protests begin at Tehran’s Grand Bazaar over rial currency collapse.
• Inflation rate reached 42.5% in December 2025.
• Iranian rial lost nearly half its value against the US dollar in 2025.
• Bazaar merchants, historically supporting 1979 revolution, now oppose clerical rulers.
• Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) controls major economic sectors including oil, transport, and construction.
• IRGC’s economic influence expanded post-Iran-Iraq war with Supreme Leader Khamenei’s backing.
• Merchants complain IRGC dominance blocks imports and prioritizes its own profits.
• Protests escalated into political movement challenging Islamic Republic’s legitimacy.
• Security forces used tear gas, batons, and live ammunition against demonstrators.
• Protesters burned portraits of Supreme Leader Khamenei, chanting “Death to the dictator.”
• Iranian leaders blame US and Israel for inciting unrest.
• Former President Rouhani publicly clashed with IRGC over budget cuts and economic control.
• IRGC operates secret oil shipments and front companies, mainly selling to China.
• Clerical class relies on IRGC and Basij militia to violently suppress protests.
• Analysts say government lacks control; merchants cite price volatility as core issue.
• Economic disparity and government corruption fuel public dissatisfaction.
Summary
In late 2025, widespread protests erupted in Iran, ignited by economic grievances at Tehran’s Grand Bazaar. Bazaar merchants, once key supporters of the 1979 revolution, have turned against the clerical leadership due to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC) growing economic dominance. The IRGC controls vital sectors such as oil, transport, and construction, benefiting from sanctions that exclude Iran from global financial systems. Inflation soared to 42.5%, and the rial lost nearly half its value against the dollar, severely impacting ordinary citizens. Protests rapidly evolved into a political challenge against the regime, with demonstrators openly defying Supreme Leader Khamenei. Despite acknowledging economic difficulties, Iranian leaders accuse foreign enemies of fomenting unrest. The IRGC’s unchecked power, including secret oil sales and resistance to budget cuts, undermines government efforts to resolve the crisis. The clerical establishment depends on the IRGC and Basij militia to suppress dissent violently. Analysts highlight that merchants’ main concern is price instability rather than inflation alone, reflecting deep economic and political fractures within Iran.
