Key Facts
• New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) between US and Russia expires on February 5, 2026.
• New START limits each side to 1,550 deployed strategic nuclear warheads.
• Treaty also caps delivery systems such as intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs).
• Treaty was extended once in February 2021 for five years; no further extensions allowed.
• US and Russia hold about 90% of the world’s nuclear warheads.
• US Secretary of State Rubio stated true 21st-century arms control requires including China.
• Former President Trump warned China’s nuclear forces could match US within 4-5 years.
• China refuses to join talks, citing smaller nuclear arsenal compared to US and Russia.
• Russian President Putin proposed a one-year extension in September 2025; US did not respond.
• Russian Foreign Ministry criticized US for ignoring extension proposal.
• Putin held online talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping on treaty expiration.
• Cold War-era arms control began with 1972 SALT I treaty, leading to significant warhead reductions in the 1980s.
Summary
The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), the sole nuclear arms control agreement between the United States and Russia, officially expires on February 5, 2026. This treaty, which limits each country to 1,550 deployed strategic nuclear warheads and restricts delivery systems like ICBMs, was extended once in 2021 but cannot be extended further. With the treaty’s expiration, prospects for a successor agreement remain unclear amid China’s rapid nuclear expansion. US Secretary of State Rubio emphasized that effective 21st-century arms control must include China, a position echoed by former President Trump, who warned China’s nuclear arsenal could rival the US within a few years. China, however, has declined to join negotiations, citing its smaller nuclear stockpile. Russia’s President Putin proposed a one-year extension last year, but the US did not respond, prompting criticism from Moscow. Putin also discussed the treaty’s expiration with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The treaty’s end marks a potential shift from decades of nuclear arms reduction, initiated during the Cold War with the 1972 SALT I treaty, toward renewed nuclear competition.
