Key Facts
• July 28, 2025: India’s Finance Ministry released its monthly economic report.
• Global economic slowdown and U.S. tariff uncertainties may pressure India’s trade for quarters.
• June 2025 exports totaled $35.14 billion, flat year-on-year but down 9% month-on-month.
• June export levels were the lowest since November 2024 ($32.11 billion).
• Despite global headwinds, India’s macroeconomic fundamentals remain strong, per the report.
• U.S. economy contracted by 0.5% in Q1 2025, posing risks to India’s exports.
• Inflation for 2025-26 may fall below the Reserve Bank of India’s 3.7% forecast.
• June 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.1% year-on-year, the slowest in over six years.
• Central Bank Governor Malhotra stated inflation control efforts are ongoing despite recent success.
Summary
India’s Finance Ministry warned of potential export slowdowns due to global economic deceleration and U.S. tariff uncertainties, as highlighted in its July 28, 2025, report. June exports reached $35.14 billion, marking a 9% month-on-month decline and the lowest level since November 2024. While India’s macroeconomic fundamentals remain robust, risks from global trade tensions and a 0.5% contraction in the U.S. economy during Q1 2025 could impact export demand. Inflation is projected to stay below the Reserve Bank of India’s 3.7% forecast for 2025-26, with June’s CPI growth at a six-year low of 2.1%. Central Bank Governor Malhotra emphasized ongoing efforts to stabilize prices despite recent progress in controlling inflation.
