Key Facts
• On July 29, 2025, the IMF released its updated global economic outlook.
• The 2025 global economic growth rate forecast was raised to 3.0%, up 0.2 points from April.
• The revision reflects lower-than-expected tariff levels following the Trump administration’s “reciprocal tariffs.”
• In April, the U.S. imposed a 10% reciprocal tariff but paused additional increases for 90 days.
• The U.S. effective tariff rate was revised down from 24.4% to 17.3%.
• Global trade volume growth for 2025 was adjusted upward from 1.7% to 2.6%.
• U.S. growth rate forecast increased by 0.1 points to 1.9%, aided by eased monetary policy.
• Japan’s growth rate was revised to 0.7%, supported by strong private investment.
• China’s growth rate rose by 0.8 points to 4.8%, following a major tariff reduction agreement with the U.S.
• IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas warned of persistent high tariffs and economic uncertainty.
Summary
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its 2025 global economic growth forecast to 3.0%, citing lower-than-expected tariff levels after the Trump administration’s reciprocal tariff measures. The U.S. effective tariff rate was revised down to 17.3%, and global trade volume growth was adjusted upward to 2.6%. Key regional forecasts include a 1.9% growth rate for the U.S., 0.7% for Japan, and 4.8% for China, reflecting eased monetary policies, strong private investment, and a U.S.-China tariff reduction agreement. Despite these improvements, IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas highlighted ongoing high tariffs and economic uncertainty.
