Key Facts
• On July 29, 2025, the IMF released its global economic outlook.
• The 2025 global real growth rate forecast was revised up to 3.0%.
• This is a 0.2 percentage point increase from the April 2025 forecast.
• The revision reflects the suspension of “reciprocal tariffs” by the U.S. government.
• Japan’s growth forecast was also raised by 0.1 points to 0.7%.
• Tariff measures active as of June 2025 remain in place.
• If maximum tariff rates were applied, global growth could drop by 0.2 points.
• Chief Economist Gransha warned of ongoing trade friction impacts.
• The 2026 global growth rate was revised up by 0.1 points to 3.1%.
Summary
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised its 2025 global growth forecast to 3.0%, a 0.2 percentage point increase from April. This adjustment reflects the U.S. government’s suspension of “reciprocal tariffs,” which helped lower expected tariff rates. Japan’s growth forecast was also raised to 0.7%. However, Chief Economist Gransha cautioned that global growth remains sluggish compared to pre-tariff levels, with trade friction continuing to impact the global economy. The 2026 growth rate was also revised upward to 3.1%.
